Correlation and Trend Studies of the Sea Ice Cover and Surface Temperatures in the Arctic

摘要

Co-registered and continuous satellite data of sea ice concentrations and surface ice temperatures from 1981 to 1999 are analyzed to evaluate relationships between these two critical climate parameters and what they reveal in tandem about the changing Arctic environment. During the 18-year period, the actual Arctic ice area is shown to be declining at a rate of 3.1 +/- 0.4 % /decade while the surface ice temperature has been increasing at 0.4 +/- 0.2 K /decade. Yearly anomaly maps also show that the ice concentration anomalies are predominantly positive in the 1980s and negative in the 1990s while surface temperature anomalies were mainly negative in the 1980s and positive in the 1990s. The yearly ice concentration and surface temperature anomalies are shown to be highly correlated indicating a strong link especially in the seasonal region and around the periphery of the perennial ice cover. The surface temperature data are also especially useful in providing the real spatial scope of each warming (or cooling) phenomenon that usually extends beyond the boundaries of the sea ice cover. Studies of the temporal variability of the summer ice minimum also reveal that the perennial ice cover has been declining at the rate of 6.6% /decade while the summer surface ice temperature has been increasing at the rate of 1.3 K /decade. Moreover, high year-to-year fluctuations in the minimum ice cover in the 1990s may have caused reductions in average thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover.